Belmont Analysis (05/31/14)

In-depth analysis of the 2014 Belmont Stakes including Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern of each starter. Please refer to the Legend or Pattern Guide for back-up definitions and patterns.



The Predicteform.com Pace Figures will tell you if a horse is likely to improve or regress in its next start. Pace Figures are not just a single speed number, but rather a series of numbers that are incredibly powerful in identifying the Form Cycle Patterns of a horse.

To view the Pace Figures for the Belmont Stakes, click here.

California Chrome (3-5)

Here's what we had to say about California Chrome prior to the Preakness:

California Chrome was a deserving Derby favorite and ran lights out, opening up on the field before coasting to the wire running a 79.1/73.8 (final/4f) Pace Figure. His Final Pace Figures continue to climb ever so slightly while his 4f Pace Figures have steadied out in the low 70's. This indicates a runner who continues to manage his energy very efficiently while showing signs of brilliance with the ability of running an 80+ final Pace Figure.

By Final Pace Figure alone California Chrome looks at least two points faster than any of his competitors. Plus his 4f Pace Figure should keep him close to the lead without joining the fray of the front-runners.


Chrome did run a Final Pace Figure over 80 as suspected, winding up with an 81.5/76.6 (final/4f). The Final Pace Figure of 81.5 is what legends are made of, but before we hand him the crown, let's dive deeper into his figures.

Over the course of his last six races (all wins), his final Page Figure has stepped up in each race, ultimately going from from 73.9 to 81.5, a very reasonable eight point increase over six races. However, the measured increase in each of six races without the sign of regression brings up the question – can he increase his final Pace Figure again? While it is very unlikely that he posts even better numbers in the Belmont Stakes, based on his competitors, an 82+ Pace Figure may not be necessary…

Turning to his internal 4F Pace Figure, his mark of 76.6 in the Preakness was a three point increase from the Derby. And, with the exception of the 80.7 4F Pace Figure in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes, the 4F Pace Figures have increased every race, a total of +9.9 points in his last six races. Essentially, without that lone 80.7 4F, Chrome's last effort would have been a Double Top (DTOP – a runner's best final and 4f Pace Figure by a notable margin). DTOP patterns are strong indicators of future regression. The odds on the eventual Belmont Stakes winner having increased both his final and internal (4F) Pace Figure in 11 of 12 instances over his last six starts are not strong.

Chrome continues to look the part of a Triple Crown contender. He is sitting on immortality as 12 other runners have snce Affirmed last won the Triple Crown in 1978. Close your eyes and imagine if you can hear the name California Chrome in the same breath as Secretariat and Seattle Slew. A deserving Belmont Stakes and Triple Crown contender, Chrome carries the weight of a generation. The TV cameras, the horse and jockey competitors and an expectation that this is the year adds weight that can't be measured.



The play: CONTENDER - His Pace Figures are remarkable, but this is a runner who makes his third start in five weeks. Are you willing to back a runner who will likely have a slower Final Pace Figure in his effort to win the third leg of the Triple Crown? It's a tall task for any horse, especially one that is not likely to take another step forward. He is just a little more likely than not to win the race, yet likely will not have value at less than even money.

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