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Bluegrass Stakes (07/11/20)

Keeneland, Race 9

Improvised Derby prep season rolls on with a full field of sophomores going 9 furlongs. Predicteform's Pace Figures can identify where these developing 3-year olds have been distributing their energy in races while the Form Cycle Patterns are great indicators of next out improvement or regression. Let's use a few of today's runner to highlight patterns you'll see often with lightly-raced runners.

#3 Art Collector 5/1

The 3-year old debut of 78/77 DTOP was quick and compressed and while DTOPs often lead to next out regression, lightly-raced runners can break through them more often as they develop. Appreciating the softer fractions of a route, Art Collector did just that setting a field's best Top Final with a 69/81 REV. The REV (reversal) pattern is prompted the first time a runner runs a faster Final Figure than 4F Figure and signals a runner able to distribute energy more toward the end of a race. A slight stretchout here from 8.5 to 9 furlongs is a positive distance change with the REV pattern.

#7 Swiss Skydiver 3/1

One of the main headlines will be eyes on this filly facing the boys while also being instilled as the morning line favorite. 40 fillies total have qualified to run in the Kentucky Derby's history. The breakout performance was an 84/79 DTOP with DTOP being an indicator of next out regression. The following run was indeed a significant regression to 75/75. However, we must consider the combo of having run a SOFT win in that race. The SOFT designation indicates the runner did what she needed to do against that field and possibly had more to give if needed. It has now been over 60 days since the DTOP performance indicating recovery from that peak has a better chance of having occurred setting her up for a chance to run back to that ability. A quick sort shows her Top Final ranks second in the field so a return to that form would make her competitive.

#8 Basin 8/1

Runner developed to a 79/72 NPT two races back. The NPT (New Pace Top) is our most powerful pattern with 70% of runners improving when racing back off this positive conditioning move. Basin did indeed improve quite drastically routing today's distance at 79/77 which could also be contributed to him appreciating catching a fast dirt track for the first time in 9 months. The dirt spread (4F minus Final) of +2 provides a nicely “compressed” runner who could enjoy coupling that with good position with the 2nd best Last 4F Figure of the field while being proven at 9 furlongs.

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