#1 Finnick The Fierce 50/1
Had the Derby gone on 1st week of May, it seems the connections had this one ready to make a timely breakout performance when he popped a 76/77 in the Arkansas Derby running a respectable 3rd at big 62/1 odds. The 68/78 at Churchill Downs was a nice practice run for this Derby track and quite competitive with this field for a 50/1 runner. To be fair though, that was a different ballgame as Finnick ran that race in the clear in a 4-horse field. Today, he'll not only have 16 other rivals to deal with, but stands a good chance of being pocketed from the dreaded rail position.
#2 Max Player 30/1
Came off the 4-month summer break to display exciting new form improving on his best winter Final Figure by 8 points. Runner broke through the DTOP and ran a huge dirt spread (4F minus Final) of -16. Position and speed are certainly important when running on dirt, but this is the kind of running line one would need to overcome a #2 post position that leaves a runner likely sitting behind traffic. If a lane opens up late, look for Max to be ready to run at the targets up front. A lot needs to happen first, however, for him to have that opportunity.
#3 Enforceable 30/1
Another known for a late-running style, this one comes off a similar summer break where he posted his best 4F Figure as well as Final Figure in a route. It is essentially a hidden DTOP. Much like Max Player, DTOPs are a bit more concerning when they are part of an ongoing campaign rather than the beginning of a new form cycle so timing is important in assessing DTOPs. There isn't a race in the entire career where Enforceable wasn't passing horses late, however, I think there's a question of well he'll handle the traffic of a 17-horse field. He does like to go wide regularly and could be left with too much to do to be passing any horses late that matter.
#4 Storm The Court 50/1
Gained stardom at 2 after taking the BC Juvenile in upset fashion prompting a great TV moment when winning trainer Peter Eurton got to celebrate by being interviewed by his daughter, Britney. The sophomore season hasn't quite progressed toward this 10-furlong stretchout today. He's remained a bit forward throughout the year with dirt spreads going +2, +4, and +1 in his three route tries. A runner posting positive numbers in the dirt spread formula in a stretchout really needs to be enjoying a pace advantage on the field to be effective, a scenario unlikely with 16 rivals. He does draw nicely here as you see him having that 4F Figure advantage over all surrounding runners all the way out to the #9 post, but he'll need to drastically improve his 73-range Final Figures. Even with an opportunity for a clean break, there haven't been any strong indications present that a form reversal will happen here allowing him to get all 10 furlongs competitively. Last out's turf try can be a good spot for a trainer to put some stamina into a runner, but I think we're likely asking for more improvement than just one turf conditioner can give.
#5 Major Fed 50/1
Unlike our last two runners, Fed's big Final Figure jump from 69 to 76 did not come off a long break. It was part of a campaign. We would prefer to see 60 days rest off a significant move like this, a requirement he is messing with the borderline on. I'd prefer to see some incremental improvement and a more solid foundation to fall back on as he not only needs to run back to that 76 Final to be competitive here but also improve on it. Seems a tough task after falling throughout the spring from a 73 to 69.
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