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G2 Louisiana Derby (03/20/21)

Fair Grounds, Race 14

The 2021 edition of the Louisiana Derby will look very similar to the Risen Star Stakes back in February with 6 of 8 entries re-matching today from that contest. The 9 ½ Furlong contest will be a stretch out in distance for all runners as well as a bit of a local contest with only one contender shipping in.

#1 Starrininmydreams 20/1

His debut 71/71 COMP is one of the better first unveilings of this group. Moved forward from there as many COMP runners do with a 67/73 REV victory in first route before flopping bad last out in the Risen Star. If you excuse the last, you'd expect another move forward here. Lacks the consistent development of others in here but wouldn't be a surprise to catch the bottom of the exotics at a price if his head is right.

#2 Rightandjust 20/1

Runner has been pretty consistent routing on this track with a pair of gate-to-wire victories but when seeing many of today's rivals last out, his Final Figure range didn't hold up finishing off the board. He's proved he can take position against these to the turn of a 70 4F Figure but needs to find some stamina today.

#3 Run Classic 12/1

Seems to be potential here. He was a bit geared up on debut flashing speed with a 78/73 NEG then figured things out routing second out with a 66/73 SOFT victory. Could be eligible to move forward as the lightest-raced runner of today's field needing to tack a couple points onto both his 4F and Final Figures to match the rivals last efforts.

#4 Proxy 7/2

Looks to be figuring things out after breaking through a DTOP and incrementally moving forward with every one of his 5 career starts. He'll come in the lone contender sporting a New Pace Top (NPT), a Form Cycle Pattern that pushes runners forward next out about 70% of the time. Adding distance and blinkers, looks like the pick to turn the tables on race favorite Mandaloun.

#5 Hot Rod Charlie 3/1

Lit up the place spot on the board in the BC Juvenile running 2nd at 94/1 last November. After recovering from that big DTOP performance, Charlie returned to a bit forward 71/69 out west. Eligible to be better second off that layoff, but I find it hard to yield these low odds based on a single 2-year old performance.

#6 Mandaloun 8/5

Took well to blinkers last out winning the Risen Star with a 68/75. Runners who take well to blinkers are often even better second time in them. Looks to be the deserving top contender here but value-wise, there are others with reasons to add points over the extra distance.

#7 Midnight Bourbon 5/1

Has a solid foundation of 4 routes as a juvenile and came right out in good form for the sophomore campaign. Over this track he bumped his 66/73 to a 69/74 when adding distance and now does it again. The same incremental improvements can put him right there with our top contenders today.

#8 O Besos 15/1

Was always a candidate to do well routing when all three sprints to begin his career came back nicely compressed. The 65/72 route try is a respectable spot to move off of but does leave a good amount of work to do to match others. Perhaps worth a look next start if he moves forward today.

-Dustin Korth @predicteform

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