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G3 Victory Ride S. (07/10/21)

Belmont Park, Race 8

Dirt, 6.5 Furlongs

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#1 Bella Sofia 4/1

Took a slight regression off the NEG debut with a 78/74 against stakes company. Should flash some speed from the rail here but stands a good chance of being contested throughout.

#2 Inject 8/1

One of the more experienced in the group, she prompted an 85/76 NPT last out. Although it came on a muddy track, it's the fastest Last 4F Figure of the group. With a chance here to relax a bit, we would expect to see an improved Final Figure today and she does have a foundation for fitting with today's top runners.

#3 Miss Brazil 5/2

Boasts a trio of gate to wire victories already, but question the competition. The 4F Figures from those victories are lighter than what today's rivals can typically sustain. At shorter odds, I'm looking to beat.

#4 Ova Charged 10/1

She's a bit of a question mark facing tougher today after a geared down 80/68 NEG debut and an 80/75 winner 2nd out on a sloppy track that likely carried speed easily along. Both the sire and dam's foals have been above average in dirt sprints.

#5 Souper Sensational 8/1

She was a COMP debut winner on synthetic and carries a lot of stakes experience. Built stamina by going two turns for a stint then triggered An 85/77 NPT first time sprinting on dirt. She carries the foundation to have superior late pace in this race and stands to be a threat if she receives a good trip and set-up from her rivals. Projects to offer good value to ask for that scenario.

#6 Red Ghost 10/1

Debuted the 3-year old season to an 81/71 NPT and improved off that pattern to an 83/76 DTOP. Given she's only two races into her sophomore season, the DTOP is less indicative of an imminent regression than it would be deeper in a campaign. She can be forwardly-placed here but stands to have plenty of company.

#7 Australasia 2/1

She's one of the most “compressed” runners across the board winning last out with a negative dirt spread (4F Figure of 73.6 minus Final Figure of 75.8). There's plenty of speed in this race to set her up again, but I find it tough to back favoritism with a runner that will be out of position on dirt needing a trip and set-up.

#8 Shop Girl 20/1

She's been a good 10 points slower than the field throughout her running lines. Tough to find any reasoning she'll pop an improvement to be in contention today.

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Win preference in order: 5-2-1

-Dustin Korth @predicteform

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Update with Results:

#5 Souper Sensational paid $13.80 as the top pick winner.

5-4 Exacta - $98 for $2

5-4-2 Trifecta - $353 per $1

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