Gulfstream Park, Race 11
Dirt, 8 ½ furlongs
The Road to the Derby kicks into full swing this weekend with points being awarded on both coasts. We'll turn our focus to the east here with a nice field of 9 entered for the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. There's no shortage of sophomore runners coming in off positive moves here to choose from. Let's use our Form Cycle Patterns for lightly-raced runners to assess what each needs to do to keep propelling forward today.
#2 Willy Boi 10/1
The debut 73/68 NEG just missed qualifying as a COMP, and the 82/68 NPT against winners 2nd out is certainly a nice conditioning move with the 82 being the fastest 4F Figure endured by this field. Willy can move forward now BUT needs to use that NPT as something to relax off of and keep the tempo up late now stretching out to two turns.
#3 Papetu 15/1
Did well to get better through winter training debuting as a sophomore a mile to a 72/73. That route was still one turn so needs to adjust to losing that long backstretch that makes it easier for runners to slowly work themselves into position. Half the field here has experience working two turns while matching similar Figures.
#4 Amount 6/1
A debut 65/68 COMP typically signals next out improvement and can be especially good for today. A compression line (COMP) is triggered when a first timer distributes their energy evenly over the course of a race making the runner a candidate to appreciate a stretchout in distance. Will need to pick it up to keep from getting too out of position with most of the field able to match the 68 Final but while establishing position earlier with faster 4F Figures.
#5 Tarantino 8/1
In his three turf starts, he's progressed his turf spread (Final minus 4F) from +10 to +7 to +5. Typically, you'll see strong turf routers progress in an opposite manner learning to relax earlier and burst later. Instead, Tarantino has put on early speed as he's progressed thus shrinking the turf spread. However, we haven't seen any falloff in his Final Figures through this development. This conditioning of building higher “sustainable paces” can be an excellent indicator of a runner that would take to the dynamics of a dirt race well. The only question may be liking the physical surface itself.
#6 Prime Factor 3/1
Was in control throughout the 78/71 NEG romp. Likely could have avoided triggering a NEG as he didn't need to do much late, but still needs to move to two turns while facing winners that can match his 4F Figure that did the job last time. Should be well-respected but wouldn't want to back too short of a price given this race is nothing comparable to the debut.
#7 Greatest Honour 5/2
Textbook development moving his COMP debut to an NPT before triggering a Reversal (REV) first time routing. He has a win at this track and distance with a competitive Final Figure already. Favoritism isn't a surprise off all that goodness, but one question could certainly be his effectiveness in this field if repeating that 62 4F Figure. He'll need to stay within striking range of a field that puts up much faster 4F Figures while hoping for a clean trip. If any rival gets comfortable with forward position, it's very difficult in a dirt race for a late runner to catch up no matter how strong they might be. I like to see better odds when backing a horse that likely can't just take a race for himself without help from weakening rivals.
#8 Sittin On Go 5/1
Has displayed a nice balance of speed and late finish while routing sticking around the -2 to -4 dirt spread range. However, the Final Figures regressed in all three starts prompting a bit of a break. He'll need to fire his best here as the rival with the second least recency of the field.
#9 Awesome Gerry 8/1
We've seen his dirt spreads start to “compress” lately with the 4F Figure drawing closer to the Final Figure. Every other rival here has put up negative dirt spreads when it comes to routing. If this one can relax a bit and trigger a Reversal (REV), we could easily see him capitalize on good early position.
-Dustin Korth @predicteform