Stephen Foster Analysis (06/13/14)

A new perspective from, the abridged analysis provides quick hitting Pace Figure commentary on select horses both improving and regressing.

To view the Pace Figures for the Stephen Foster Handicap, Race 8 at Churchill Downs, click here.

Revolutionary (2/1)

Consistent Final Pace Figure improvement over three races (75 – 76.8 – 78.6 most recent), makes you think another improved effort in a final figure will be tough. Given that a number of these runners can compete in the 78-80 range for a final figure, plus his morning-line odds of 2:1 warrants him a look underneath but the value is not on top with this runner.

Will Take Charge (5/2)

His recent four race successive decline in final Pace Figures from an 84.1 top (and absolutely monster final figure at GP) to his most recent 75.3 indicate a runner who is tailing off (8.8 points over 4 months) – looking at his “basic view graph,” this regression really is noticeable. The likelihood of WTC bouncing back to run a three point + improved final figure is less than his chance to not which is particularly unattractive for a 5:2 morning line runner.

Departing (9/2)

A well-managed runner with only 10 lifetime starts, this colt is a Claiborne Farm type runner inside and out. (Stallion War Front stands at Claiborne for $150,000 while the Dam Leave is also Claiborne bred). His last effort was a 78.3/80.1 New Pace Top (NPT – fastest 4f figure of career without a lifetime final top), which is even more impressive coming off a seven month layoff (9/29/13 – 4/30/14). His improving 4f figures with consistent competitive final figures indicate a runner who is showing a tactical ability to stalk the pace. There is significant value here at 9:2 morning line.

Golden Ticket (8/1)

Notice his basic view graph. The up and down style of his final Pace Figure tells the story.

Long River (15/1)

Another runner off a New Pace Top (NPT), he has four consecutive Form Cycle Patterns and 8 of 11 lifetime races with a pattern. His most recent effort of 80.9/83.3 (NPT at Charlestown a 1/2 mile track) is impressive. The big question is whether a 10 point jump in his 4f figure and back-to-back ~81 final times are sustainable, though double–digit odds are enticing.

Prayer Relief (8/1)

His recent effort was a Cyclical Pace Top (CPT – best 4f Pace Figure in last 10 starts). Notice his two previous CPT's and the regression that followed each.

Also Running – Jaguar Paw, Moonshine Mullin and Mylute.

The Play

Revolutionary and WTC are likely to be co-favorites (or close) leaving value in Departing as the key horse, especially at 5:1 or greater. There are two wagering possibilities to consider for those interested in playing the Stephen Foster: Win/Place on (6) Departing and three horse exacta box (1) Revolutionary - (6) Departing - (8) Long River.


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