G1 Ogden Phipps (06/13/20)

Belmont Park, Race 9

#1 Pink Sands 6/1

She campaigned August 2018 all the way through this January culminating in back-to-back wins with a 68/74 route to a 72/74 sprint victory. It appears a lot to ask a campaigning-type runner to show up after a deserved break with a DTOP which she would need to beat a field that leaves her ranked last in average Final and second to last in average 4F Figure.

#2 Point Of Honor 2/1

With a season debut 75/77 NPT right off the bench, I would have expected a laid off runner hitting an NPT to produce an “off” final number, however, this one came back much stronger. She moved second out routing to a 66/74 so this one shows capability to adjust energy distribution based on distance. This feels like a similar pattern to last year when the season's debut was also fast and produced a similar to last out's 68/74 which culminated in a massive DTOP to an 80 Final.

#3 She's A Julie 8/1

First off the layoff at a 64/68 was a dud. Past success relied on speed as her highest Finals were accompanied with 70+ 4F Figures before form declined into the mid-60s 4Fs with mid 70s Finals. There's valuable spots in runners off “needed” races but this one is tough to back as it is way off form from past ability. Some of the juiciest prices we see are high NPT 4F Figures accompanied with “off” Final Figures, but Julie didn't show us anything near that longshot angle despite having the back form that could have supported it.

#4 Blamed 10/1

Every loss was due to a close 80+ 4F Figure, not something seen often going today's distance (until we get to the next runner). Perhaps Blinkers Off (good title for a great handicapping read) may have relaxed Blamed for the last out win, but that race also provided her the seemingly needed lead with the lowest 4F Figure since November 2018. I'm not quite sold the equipment change was the key as this one's past says she'll attempt to go as fast as the herd asks.

#5 Ollie's Candy 8/5

Back to back NPTs for the 5-year old season and a Last 4F that's an incredible 9 points over the field. Anything over 2 points should be considered a threat for “lone pace.” How do we beat a horse that has only missed the trifecta twice in 10 graded stakes? Pretty tough, this one is fast, fit, and has a glaring 4F Figure advantage. Hope in beating this favorite may lie on Blamed's passion to pressure, but if Blamed relaxes going 2nd time blinkers, should be really tough to catch.

#6 Golden Award 7/2

The Pace Figure Story here is one of a smart, classy runner. The lowest 4F Figures resulted in SOFT wins. Runner doesn't exert any more than needed, just keeps an eye on the field and responds when it's Go-Time. Runner never strings together many races so we know off the layoff is no problem and owns the Top Final Figure of the field.

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