Haskell Stakes (07/18/20)

Monmouth Park, Race 12

It's Haskell Day at Monmouth where a 3-year old runner will earn an automatic bid to the Breeder's Cup Classic. No horse in the field is a winner at today's 9 furlong distance so energy distribution is the key factor to coming out on top here. Let's highlight a few runners using Predicteform Pace Figures to see how they might fit today.

#1 Dr Post 5/2

Development has been consistent with dirt spreads from debut to last race roughly going +7 / 0 / -2 / -7. Dirt spread is 4F minus Final and the pattern with Dr Post is one of learning to distribute his energy more evenly as he matures. 71/78 (4F/Final) line last out features the best Final Figure of the field.

#2 Authentic 4/5

Runner was consistent and compressed unbeaten through first 3 starts. Took a step forward last out improving Final Figure by 2 points to a 73/76 but was not enough. Lightly-raced runners can show big improvements as they develop. When called upon, Authentic gave us 2 points, and we'll be asking for at least another 2-3 points from him today. There are other rivals here that can have breakout performances surpassing that. Value-wise, I don't see how I can yield favoritism to a “consistent” runner in this type of race.

#3 Jesus' Team 15/1

Had 4 routes before last and ran a faster 4F Figure than Final Figure in all of them. Last race's 74/75 prompted the reversal (REV) pattern indicating the first time a runner ran a faster Final than 4F, an indicator of a young horse that's figured out how to distribute energy better over the entirety of the race. REV patterns can often be signals of improvement for runners stretching out which we'll see here.

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