2022 Kentucky Derby (Posts 16-22)

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#16 Cyberknife 20/1

Strong show of pace throughout career with a big 86 4F Figure on debut. Failed to sustain speed when first turning to routing but things have started coming together off two wins. Has the tactical speed to be dangerous here in a race where traffic is a worry for most in the field. I expect he'll want to fire from the 16 spot and has the looks of one that may possess the luck to be peaking in the first week of May. Gun Runner foals have been excellent with wet tracks should the track turn up off. If the Arkansas Derby was a furlong longer, he was getting caught so the distance could be an obstacle but rates a good longshot try for tickets at 15/1+.

#17 Classic Causeway 30/1

Never ideal to see a dud thrown the prep before a race like this but the barn says the cause has been addressed so we'll allow an excuse. Solid to open the sophomore season on a REV then gearing up from there with easy wins going 78/77h and 70h/75 SOFT at Tampa. Expect he'll go hard early here from an outside post and rates maaaybe small consideration for deep exotics to hold on but would need to see his odds float up even more than ML. New rider is a good one but not a familiar one, and it really helps to know the horse when you get these speed types that have to relax to have a chance.

#18 Tawny Port 30/1

He broke through a DTOP early in career then survived another when finding a SOFT win in the Lexington. That was the last chance for runners to get qualified and put him in a spot where he's been forced to make the Derby, one of the toughest races to win, his 3rd start in 5 weeks. Respect what he's been through and the development thus far but could easily be at the breaking point for this campaign.

#19 Zozos 20/1

One of a few in here unraced at 2 and on the recent uptick trying to tackle the Derby with less experience than most. Could be some upside here as two turns led to a dramatic reversal in energy distribution going from a +8 NEG to a -9 REV. No shame in last when improving but being no match for one of today's co-favorites who was also a strong "horse for the course" in that setting. Has upside here with an unknown ceiling and speed to get position although he'll need to work his way over from the 19 post before the first turn or he could be out of it early. Interested in using on some tickets provided he doesn't show up as the "wise guy choice" with too low of odds for my liking.

#20 Ethereal Road 30/1

Lone win so far came out of a maiden event in January that featured a large field in which no runner from that race has beat winners (most are still maidens). Been building a little bit better sustained pace over recent races but needs a large uptick here to compete. Don't know that runners whose sale price is less than the stud fee make great candidates to suddenly explode with improvement. 30/1 seems like a generous ML.

#21 Rich Strike 30/1 *AE*

Needs a deflection to draw in. Positive to see the COMP triggered when debuting on today's main track as a juvenile. Good developmental moves to follow-up with NPT/REV combo even though slow running lines. Has since moved to synthetic and shown a sudden uptick lately to 68/76. Can't blame connections for hoping to get in with a runner suddenly feeling great. Would figure to have a lot of horses to pass late here and unlikely he can do it with a pretty slow foundation compared to the field. Honestly though, if he does get in, he's probably worth the value to include on your deep exotics tickets thinking he could be 70/1+ and while probably too slow, is improving nonetheless.

#22 Rattle N Roll 30/1 *AE*

Has been relaxing more early throughout current campaign but it hasn't translated to increasing Final Figures much. Experimenting with blinkers only to take them right off tells me they're not sure yet how to get the most out of him. Toss for me if he draws in.

Posts 1-5 | Posts 6-10 | Posts 11-15 | Posts 16-22 | Quick Rank Chart | Energy Distribution Chart


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