2018 International Flair


Juvenile Fillies Turf

Happily – 3 wins from 4 starts in Graded races this season. Untried on quick ground. Form difficult to quantify; generally raced against stablemates & thus vulnerable against US-based improvers?
September – Closely tied to Happily on form – btn 3 ¾ lengths on testing ground by aforementioned in September. Better ground could help spark reversal in placings?
Juliet Capulet – 1st try at Grade 1 level. Form of last win does not look strong enough to make impression here; needs to improve. Untried at 1m. Dettori booking +

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Masar – 2 wins from 4 turf starts. Conditions favourable. Trainer/jockey know how to win abroad.
Mendelssohn – US pedigree (out of Scat Daddy). Unlucky Group 1 2nd last time out (winner kicked early). Won over 1m on similar ground 3 starts ago. Looks tailor made for this.
James Garfield – Young up & coming trainer saddles. Top jockey booking. Trip concerns.
Beckford – Beaten favourite last 3 starts over shorter, shaping as if wants further. Joel Rosario booking +. Pedigree suggests trip will not suit, though trainer extremely shrewd & may know otherwise. Place claims at a bigger price?


Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

Marsha – Beat Lady Aurelia (+110 favourite) in August @ York, England. Beaten 4L by one of best sprinters in Europe last time out. Very consistent – should be thereabouts.
Washington DC – Highly tried. 1 win at Group level from 19 attempts. Looks to be regressing now. Unlikely.
Cotai Glory – Beaten by +4000 shot at Woodbine latest. Campaigned at lower level 2017. Well held by Marsha on numerous starts.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Rhododendron – Excellent Grade 1 performances 2017 (2nd to Enable in Epsom Oaks). Ground in favour. 3lb pull from majority of field. Stellar chance.
Queen's Trust – Best efforts on this surface. Last win November 2016 (5 starts 2017). 1m1f too sharp?
Wuheida – Improved as season has gone on. Close 4th to Rhododendron last month on bad ground. Looks overpriced.
Nezwaah – Well held Woodbine latest – ground possible excuse though fancied favourite? No excuses with surface here.

Breeders' Cup Mile

Ribchester – Need to get tactics/pace right? (will likely lead – criticized for being played too early latest). Extremely consistent – should go close.
Roly Poly - Last 5 Grade 1 starts – 1,6,1,1,2. Rated 7lb lower than Ribchester but gets 2lb. Has beating of aforementioned on form-lines but double the price? Interesting.
Suedois – On hat-trick of wins (Keenland Grade 1 latest). Speed figures suggest should trouble favourites. +1200 value?

Breeders' Cup Turf

Highland Reel – Well beaten by best 2 horses in Europe last 2 starts. Easier task here, though price looks off-putting?
Ulysses – Beat above when last met July 2017 on softer surface; beat by above on quicker ground twice. Exacta play?
Decorated Knight – Held by above two in 3 starts earlier this year. Little to suggest will reverse form.
Seventh Heaven – Should relish surface (2 Graded wins on quick ground). Out of sorts last two starts. Lightly raced 2017 – could be more to come? Watch market…

Most likely winner – Mendelssohn
Place chance @ double figure price - Wuheida

When asked about Roly I think Roly Poly is the price it is because of the draw (12).


Purely on speed figures alone World Approval comes out fastest (hence disputing favouritism) and will likely be up there with Heart to Heart & Midnight Storm whom should lead. RP has not run as fast a race as WA over the mile on firm ground to date. RP does get 6lb from WA, but may need to make up 3, 4 lengths purely on the basis of that draw! There is the obvious problem that it will use up too much gas trying to come across from 12. WA looks a good horse IMO – did it so easily last time out. I think I will take +300 if I can get it!

Thanks to our good friend Geoorge Jeffreys - a race follower of 7 years, he enjoys flat & jumps racing in England.
Value seeker.
Favourite horse – Frankel J


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