2022 Kentucky Derby (Posts 6-10)

Posts 1-5 | Posts 6-10 | Posts 11-15 | Posts 16-22 | Quick Rank Chart | Energy Distribution Chart

#6 Messier 8/1

Juvenile foundation shows us big movement in "sustained pace" as he pushed forward 4F Figures while also showing incremental advances in Final Figure at the same time. A move to two turns prompted the same strong development with small increases in both 4F and Final Figures through each prep for today. He's drawn well and looks to be in a great spot to fire hard in a race where he may be able to avoid the traffic concerns many others could face. Obstacles figure to be a projected hot pace and unknown surface condition but the latter can be assessed on race day. As of now, figures to be a solid Win bet if holding 6/1 or better.

#7 Crown Pride 20/1

Always tricky to evaluate international shippers for our cause with the lack of race splits and data available. Japanese tracks tend to be more sandy and produce slower times than the hard dirt American surfaces. Crown Pride could certainly like the footing here and move forward, however, he may not get to see the normal fast surface with rain forecasted and a possible muddy track in the works. Runner could not get the footing to be at his best when seeing a muddy track in The Hyacinth as most of the field was going just as well or better than him in stretch there.

Heads at Churchill have been turned by his quick works as of late but unsure I feel great about how hard he's been working overall publishing 5 local spins since 4/16. Horses are slow-healing animals and if there's any soreness lurking from the hard prep here, it's sure to surface in a massive field during his longest distance try. On 4/22, when schooling the gate, the starting bell startled Crown Pride who immediatley dumped his rider not being used to the sound as Japanese races fire off without a bell.

#8 Charge It 20/1

Unraced at 2 but solid enough to start to career triggering COMP on debut and taking advantage of a SOFT spot to win 2nd out. Was good but not great in a Florida Derby that came back slower than past editions and saw the dirt spread reverse back across zero to +1 in a running line just slightly better than debut. Has the look of a runner that will show true potential later this summer but first weekend of May might have come too quick for where he's at right now.

#9 Tiz The Bomb 30/1

Built his foundation in juvenile turf stakes getting stronger and stronger late during that campaign. Failed to fire in most recent try on main track but you could argue to give him a pass for being off the layoff. Now back on track, comes off two all-weather wins and a peak performance triggering the DTOP. Usually a regressive pattern, younger runners remain more eligible to break through a DTOP as they haven't yet established a "ceiling" we can quantify. Runner is now a winner on all 3 surfaces so there's a good foundation in place as well to stay strong here. Could be one of the longshots that offers some nice vaule to run well today.

#10 Zandon 3/1

He triggered COMP on debut while posting REV first time routing so this one was built for going longer from Day 1. He's the only runner in the field that has posted double-digit late dirt spreads in all career routes so far. Surely looks to settle and make one big run late in the lane. Picked off horses at will down the stretch in the Bluegrass. The top 3 horses at the half mile split in that race finished 2nd through 4th behind him so it's not like he got some dream pace set-up. It's not often a closer can just take a race away from others on dirt. It's true Keeneland was not very kind to speed around this time as compared to usual meets but the same can be said for how Churchill has run this week too. Certainly has the look of a contender here but must avoid trouble in a crowded race, and if you're looking for a situation to favor a deep closer today, Mo Donegal can offer twice and maybe three times the payout.

Posts 1-5 | Posts 6-10 | Posts 11-15 | Posts 16-22 | Quick Rank Chart | Energy Distribution Chart


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