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G2 Louisiana Derby (03/26/22)

$1,000,000 Grade II Louisiana Derby

Race 12 – Dirt – 9.5 Furlongs

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#1 Silent Power 50/1

Made a move toward compression in last with the 68/68 by far the tightest dirt spread (4F minus Final) of career and a good spot for runners to stretch out in distance. This one will take that angle to heart and go much further than ever. Connections liked the uptick just as we see and figured, “Why Not?”. Needs the right trip and race flow for superfecta players to throw this one into the bottom of tickets for a huge price.

#2 Zozos 8/1

First time routing 62h/72 REV brings Figures a notch below many of these. To be fair, this one was much the best and had no need to post a better running line. Always love to see the bullet work followed by a slower maintenance work. Line-maker got it right here as this one has potential with the right set-up but we do want to see that 8/1 offered.

#3 Call Me Midnight 6/1

Surprise winner of the Lecomte returns with a 67h/74h where his late power came through with a good set-up. This race actually looks like it could give him the same good look but we've got a better odds line offered on the #2 who sports a bigger late dirt spread (9h vs 6h). Great call for those that liked him at 28/1 last out but he's no longer an off-the-radar runner and can't be backed at 6/1.

#4 Curly Tail 30/1

Woke up to break maiden with a 64/71 and lacks the foundation to make me think he can take another huge step forward here. Toss.

#5 Kapuna 8/1

Has triggered some sort of Form Cycle Pattern in every career try so far which tells a good story. Moved forward big in 2nd start off a COMP debut then well-placed for a SOFT win first time routing. Handled more pace next out while still triggering the REV at 73h/75h and now looks to break out here. The Pick.

#6 Epicenter 7/5

The one to beat may be a bit more used than the rest here. Experienced an early DTOP at 79h/75h as a juvenile but failed to stand that same pace test when turning three and going 79/74h. The 72/77h victory in last came off the weakest 4F Figure of career. At this point where Derby contenders start showing themselves, there's some potential for others to move forward while you have to wonder this one has already shown his ceiling. Might be the real deal but just not worth how heavy he'll be bet (and singled).

#7 Power Of Medina 5/1

Good incremental development leading into this distance test with the dirt spread last three going +3 to -2 to -5. A continued move in that direction can put him in contention here late.

#8 Galt 8/1

Gave all he had in the Holy Bull but came up short when prompting the 74/73 DTOP. Lightly-raced runners can be more eligible to break through DTOPs and run back well but this one didn't have the strongest foundation before that output of energy.

#9 Rattle N Roll 6/1

Ended juvenile season prompting the 72h/75h DTOP but failed to show up on sophomore debut with a significant regression. Should be better than last in second start off the break but tough ask here to turn things completely around.

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