Santa Anita Friday Analysis (Races 7-9)

Santa Anita | Race 7 | Turf | 6 Furlongs

#1 First Peace 4/1

Off a 2F/4F line of 87/74h, you can make a logical case the early speed on dirt translates to even easier speed on turf here. Could easily steal from the rail if field lets him.

#2 Kid Azteca 2/1

Not quite sold on yielding favoritism. He looks for the turnback angle but has already been a failed favorite in a turf sprint prior. Also goes for trainer that will take money so I'm looking to beat the possible underlay here.

#3 Russels Hustle 3/1

I'd be more interested in this one than the M/L favorite out of that last race coming back only 1 point slower despite stumbling early. Now gets the turnback angle for the first time and tries blinkers. Outside of that head-to-head comparison, though, I want a bit better than 3/1 to like him on top of the entire field.

#4 Dr. Soulfire 5/1

Triggered an NPT second time out which acts as a nice conditioner for a runner so long as they can learn to improve energy distribution next out, which will be especially important here trying grass for first time. Was technically a NEG on debut, but only 1 point off triggering the COMP while only going 5 furlongs. Could lean toward giving him the extra point and calling it fair foundation to like today's surface switch.

#6 Pacific States 15/1

Interesting one to try and catch in bottom of exotics. Threw a dud two back but that came off a DTOP which is a logical spot for regression. Seemed to heal up and rebound when trying synthetic running much better and now gets to complete surface trifecta and try turf as a big longshot.

#7 Gaelic Nation (IRE) 5/1

No Figures available on foreign runners for our purpose here unfortunately, but I'll offer up an angle here I really like despite that. He passed several rivals in stretch in his two Ireland tries after being slow with too much to do. There's a chance today's going could be a difference-maker for him. It can sometimes be tough for turf closers to get the necessary grip on a soft track to build up their best acceleration. His sire Sioux Nation notched his 4 career wins in turf sprints on good or good-to-firm rated surfaces while failing in all soft-rated tries.

Race 7 Wagers

Win 7 at 4/1 or better

Win 1 at 8/1 or better

$5 Exacta Key 7 with 1 3 4 = $15

$0.50 Trifecta 1 with 2 3 4 6 7 with 2 3 4 6 7 = $10


Must Use: 7 - 1

Fringe Adds: 4 - 3

Deep: 6

Santa Anita | Race 8 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs

#1 I'll Stand Taller 6/1

Hasn't seen the main track in a while and development-wise, really liking what we see. Through the 2021 campaign, runner was a super forward +25 on dirt spread (4F minus 6F) then +12 in next dirt sprint, followed by a +5 win and finally another +5 on BC weekend last fall (but while bumping both 4F and 6F up a few points). Turf figures have been improving since then and now he'll look to translate that development back over to the main track picking up what he had been doing all last year in this spot. Moving forward with each try.

#2 Redline 1/1

I envision this one being odds-on off a big 81/75h running line. However, the foundational Final Figures don't hold an advantage on this field like that one. For that reason, I'll likely be looking to toss and beat. Longer odds horses I can bet off one recent running line hoping runner is in new and exciting form, but short odds I'm looking for the bounce. It's a long-term game and often value is the deciding factor in backing or fading an assessment such as “Best Last Race” rather than taking it for face value. On top of that, I think we've got a good collection of rivals on uptick angles going here so I'm hoping this one gets heavily bet allowing for maximum value in horizontals.

#4 Tio Magico 4/1

Triggered NPT in 3 of last 4 going longer on both synthetic and dirt. The latest features pulling “the race from within the race” of a 4F/6F line of 85/73h going 8F. This matches well to the field's best tries going 6F so Tio can be set down here competitively. Often really like this spot as a win bet but drew a field with several capable speeds so I'd demand a pretty square price to consider.

#5 Speight And Malice 6/1

All today's rivals run a faster 4F Figure than Final Figure in dirt sprints making this one a possible outlier holding a triggered REV (Reversal) Pattern recently indicating a change in running style could be imminent. He can wake up when he feels like it and if the recent REV indeed prompts a change in running style here, should be ample opportunity to see a favorable set-up with plenty of speed going. Tough ask with win money but an angle well worth the risk/reward to cover in horizontals.

#6 Traegar 4/1

Moved off the PLUN pattern for a nice stalking win last out at 81/73 when out-dueling an odds-on $900k BB runner. Moves up to face winners now but rest of field hasn't exactly been habitually victorious as of late. Runner has potential here and could hold a decent price on the class hike.

Race 8 Wagers

$0.50 Trifecta Box 1 4 5 6 = $12


Must Use: 6 - 5 - 1 - 4

Santa Anita | Race 9 | Turf | 8 Furlongs

#1 National Generaux (IRE) 7/2

Did take a nice step forward in stateside tries from 63/69 to 72h/74. Although, that first running line is more of a needed race so I wouldn't expect another huge uptick like that but a more modest improvement with 72h/74 being his true baseline. Needs to show more turf spread here while at risk of being buried on the rail and having to work inside to out. Not excited about the look here of shipping a runner across the Atlantic only to drop him in at risk in third start.

#2 Tokamak 4/1

Comes off a negative turf spread at 78/73 going too forward last out. Takes blinkers back off in an effort to settle back down with some better energy distribution. There's others with the ultimate drop angle in here, others with better turf spreads should he settle down and look to run late, and others that can sustain some higher early pace throughout should he go on forward again. I don't hate him, but I'm not seeing an edge in any of many scenarios and would prefer longer odds on the board before looking him back over for consideration.

#3 Kazuhiko (AUS) 3/1

He sports the best running line if you keep it simple and first consider the fundamentals of turf racing and acceleration being preferred. He's second off the TDL, a strong form cycle pattern to indicate future turf success, and holds the field's Best Last Final as well as Top Lifetime Final. Figures to be out of it early again today as he's outpaced by several 4F and 6F Figures today but we'll hope for a less compact field in the turn allowing for a cleaner slingshot for home as he had to go very wide last time.

#5 Crypto Munny 4/1

Offers the competitive 65/73 set in last turf try but little foundation outside of that with a slow debut, negative turf spread sprinting, and a forward-spent NEG pattern trying dirt. Also note that lone competitive running line includes an asterisk which denotes when there haven't been enough races run under those conditions to establish a par with 95% confidence.

#6 Curly Esa 5/1

Would much prefer to see runner develop with tightening turf spreads throughout that sprint campaign in order to translate to expected improvement on the stretch out.

#7 La'och Aloysius 6/1

Showed some improvement in the running line off a long break at 72/71 when up against much tougher and can now look for a more honest effort against this field. Still ranks an outsider needing to improve to figures many of these have already ran but there's chances there.

#8 New York Dreams (GB) 12/1

Has shown some speed in stateside tries and perhaps this drop is just what he needs to try and steal one. The only runner in here with consecutive 70+/70+ running lines and gets to break clear with an outside post. Not sure if we'll get double digits but I'd certainly be interested if so.

Race 9 Wagers

Win 8 at 10/1 or better

$1 Trifecta 3 8 with 3 7 8 with 2 3 5 6 7 8 = $16


Must Use: 3 – 8

Fringe Adds: 7


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