2021 Preakness Stakes (05/15/21)

#1 Ram 30/1

Coming into his own a bit lately popping big improvements and a couple wins but is at risk for regression after such a quick moving sequence to a DTOP. The 77/77 on the Derby Day undercard would not have put him in the top half of the field if he had run in the Derby and he faces several rivals from that race today.

#2 Keepmeinmind 15/1

Had a solid 2-year old foundation including a big 70/79 performance in the BC Juvenile. Was a question mark to move forward in the sophomore season after a couple so-so performances in the 67/73 range but took well to the distance of the Derby popping a respectable 58/81 with tons of late run. A cut back in distance isn't ideal for a runner often left far back early but could offer some value in the bottom of exotics possibly passing tired runners.

#3 Medina Spirit 9/5

Had been a bit of a tough grinder when up against peaking rivals in the 2 starts before being sent on early in the Derby to spike the gate-to-wire upset. Remains a threat but did get a really good trip in the big race. Look for him to send early again but others in here that also want the lead will have an easier time challenging than they did in the Derby's bumper car field.

#4 Crowded Trade 10/1

Done well to sustain respectable figures from off the pace at the tighter turns of Aqueduct where speed has a bit of an advantage. Still, needs to show a good improvement here and I'm not sold on 10/1 against this field.

#5 Midnight Bourbon 5/1

Runner has been well-compressed at Fair Grounds and fits the distance well. Wasn't able to get a clean break in the Derby but ran on well at 67/81. Should get a better look position-wise today but has been consistently unable to get to top rivals and although looking solid enough, seems to be an underlay as a fan favorite taking action here. Threat for the exotics but doesn't offer much value.

#6 Rombauer 12/1

Started career prepping with turf to the tune of a debut win and a PLOW triggered 2nd out. Switched to dirt where he triggered the COMP and DTOP. After a Tapeta prep, took another step forward in the Bluegrass stretching his dirt spread to a -10 with nice late run on a solid Final Figure. Could be set for a solid try here with good odds. While wins on two different surfaces show versatility, he is 0 for 3 on the main track, however.

#8 Unbridled Honor 15/1

Taking some small steps forward throughout the career with a slow COMP on debut and a double NPT combo as of late. However, those races flowed in a way that allowed him to set NPTs while being well outrun earlier which set him up perfectly to pass runners late. Most of the check earners in those 2 races all came from off the pace along with him as well.

#9 Risk Taking 15/1

Had a stint earlier this year that looked promising when triggering the REV in his first dirt route then pushing both the 4F and Final forward in a Grade 3 victory, but turned up a dud last out in the Wood. If you're willing to give him an excuse for last, the early precedent was set previously for him to have success at this level so I'm seeing him as a good addition to the exotics. Connections must like what they see in workouts as they scratched him out of a Grade 3 last week to instead try here.

#10 Concert Tour 5/2

Big COMP on debut from the west coast, often a sign of a runner going places. Triggered a big REV when trying first route but faltered last out when pushed to a 79 4F. With an outside draw and his stablemate at risk of getting hooked up in a pace duel, I have to think they'll try rating back a bit here and looking to move on a bit later.

-Dustin Korth @predicteform


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