2020 Kentucky Derby (Posts 13-18)

#13 Attachment Rate 50/1

This is another one that's been making a lot of strides forward throughout a steady campaign. The three races of incrementally bumping Final Figure just 1 or 2 points each race was a nice foundation to spring off of setting a competitive 76/81 last out finishing behind Art Collector who would have been made the 2nd betting choice today but came up with a minor issue keeping him out of the race. There's some concern about being able to sustain a breakout performance in a long campaign, but there's big value being offered to a runner who sports a Top Final on dirt rivalled only by today's odds-on morning line favorite.

#14 Winning Impression 50/1

Late bloomer is starting to come into his own after recovering from a May 73/74 DTOP and while the 68/76 last out was a nice improvement, it wasn't competitive with what others did on that track that day. Good to see the form starting to shape up but could use more conditioning before being considered for the group this tough.

#15 NY Traffic 20/1

Former sprinter was a bit forward in the beginning but quickly learned to balance his speed with stamina earning a REV pattern in his 2nd route then when going 9.5 furlongs, his longest try, learned to relax posting a 4F Figure of just 63. Last couple starts have seen him sustain a bit higher pace with back to back 71/76's. Of the runners in this field that run 4F Figures in the 70 range, none of them sustain it with a -5 dirt spread the way NY Traffic has been able to. Looks like a runner who can work into a favorable position and be game in the stretch. I would be surprised if he actually offers 20/1 odds as he was coming to get Authentic, today's morning line 3rd choice, in last out's battle but certainly a legitimate player here.

#16 Honor A.P. 5/1

Runner appears to fit very well at today's 10 furlong distance. Debuted to a 66/67 COMP, pretty slow but evidence he's not one to get in a rush as he immediately responded to more distance winning his 1st route and prompting the ever-important NPT in next. When sent even longer to go 9 furlongs, he stretched his dirt spread to a -5 in a 72/77 victory. There was a hiccup last out regressing to 66/73 with a slight excuse of some bumping at the start, but he did get hung out by Thousand Words that day who refused to quit after getting the jump on him. I'd prefer to get better value on this type of runner but he does have that important 9 furlong move to bounce back off of here getting more distance which plays to his strengths.

#17 Tiz The Law 3/5

Runner has been as professional as they come. As evidenced by the dirt spreads that began the year at -4, Tiz has now worked to a huge -13 spread last out all while scoring Finals of 80 in 3 of 4 races. Runner doesn't exert any more energy than he needs to in order to sit his position until it's time to burst, and when it's time to go, he's very good. Deserving favorite will be very tough to hold off down the stretch but anything can happen as he draws poorly to the outside and will get heat from today's 2nd and 3rd betting choices who have him surrounded (literally).

#18 Authentic 8/1

Runner has been consistently good and has even made some small progress preparing for a stretchout by moving the dirt spreads from +1 to -3 to -4 while sustaining strong 4F Pace Figures. Certainly nice development in preparation for a stretchout and something he can move forward off of, but we have seen bigger strides made in that department by multiple other rivals. He also draws the far outside and risks expending some extra energy early to find a clear spot before the first turn comes.

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