Form Cycle Analysis - The Breeders’ Cup Mile

The analysis provided for each runner is derived from Predicteform's proprietary Pace Figures. To learn more about the Predicteform Form Cycle Patterns read the Pattern Guide or watch this short video. This analysis first appeared on Horse Racing Nation.

1. Giant Expectations – immediately take notice of the NPT (New Pace Top), the most positive dirt pattern and a strong indication of forthcoming improvement. Though not surprising, as the NPT came about as he turned back to a sprint (7f) for the first time since his initial lifetime start. The two fastest Final Figures are also at 8 furlongs. Would not be too surprised to see an improved mid-pack stalking effort and a rail skimming final run - the value in the field.
2. Improbable – another who's final Figures are too slow, a 74.8 and 73.8 last two starts. He's got big dirt spread of 15.5 (Final Figure minus 4f figure) from the Penn Derby, but that type of running style likely won't fit against these top milers.
3. Spun to Run – his Final Pace Figures are three points (or more) slower than the rest of the field.
4. Mr. Money – this is an excellent example of the difference between the PP's and Predicteform Pace Figures. If you just look at PP's, Mr. Money has the look of a horse who likes to be on the lead or sitting second. However, when considering the Pace Figures, Mr. Money has three consecutive WIDENING double-digit dirt spreads, his last three starts. These big dirt spreads are the sign of a horse getting faster later in the race. Now we have a turn back in distance, shortening to a mile off nine a couple of furlong routes. His Form Cycle pattern actually looks like he'll come from off-the-pace because his dirt spreads are much stronger than the rest of the field. We expect Mr. Money to eat up ground the last eighth of the race and close faster than the competition. Solid consideration in the first two slots.
5. Omaha Beach – The most consistent performer in the field who has run 78-79 his last four starts. What is also evident, and this is by comparing his Fastest Final Figure to the rest of the field, is Omaha Beach has only run the sixth fastest final figure in the field. This means he's got more potential to run a big number than not. His average dirt spread over the last four races is just .18 which means he runs about the same pace at 4f as he does at the finish, what you want to see from a miler. The most likely winner and a must use in both first and second.
6. Ambassador - international shipper.
7. Coal Front – The win on 9/21 was not surprising to us (nor to the betting public) as he paired up two positive Form Cycle Patterns in the two races prior. The New Pace Top (NPT) on Belmont Stakes Day (6/8) is the strongest Form Cycle Pattern while the Reversal (REV) shows the first time a horse runs a faster Final Figure than 4f figure. However, most critical to his Form Cycle analysis is the three-race negative progression with Final Figures which is not appealing.
8. Blue Chipper - international shipper.
9. Diamond Oopps – a pure sprinter who's run only one race where his Final Figure was faster than the 4f figure. That was until last out when they moved to dirt and he changed his running style – which is supposed to happen as Turf is a game of acceleration (each quarter gets faster) while dirt racing is deceleration (each quarter gets slower). His second most recent start shows a DPT (Delayed Pace Top), which is a positive sign for horses moving back to dirt. Though, from the looks of dirt spread here (final figure minus 4f figure), this one is more of a sprinter type who could falter in the last eighth.
10. Snappy Sinclair – Final Pace Figures are more than five points slower than the rest of the field.

About Predicteform

Originally developed by legendary professional horseplayer Cary Fotias from watching over 100,000 races, Predicteform.com Pace Figures will tell you if a horse is likely to get better or worse in its next start. The Predicteform.com Pace Figures are not just a single final speed number but rather a series of numbers at the key points in a race that are incredibly powerful in predicting the positive and negative Form Cycle Patterns of a horse.

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PREDICTEFORM PACE FIGURES LAST 4 STARTS -